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Slavoj Olympia Bruntál vs Bílovec — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bílovec
Bílovec
3/31/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 19Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál28%
×Draw22%
Bílovec49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.40
Bílovec
1.91

Bílovec creates 36% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 71 away

creates per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.36
Bílovec
1.63

allows per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.19
Bílovec
1.44

finishing

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par
Bílovec+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál ↓

Bílovec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or draw
51%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or Bílovec
78%
Draw or Bílovec
72%

Winning margin

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
12%
Bílovec wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
75%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
41%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
17%
Bílovec 1+ goals
85%
Bílovec 2+ goals
57%
Bílovec 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
36%
Bílovec (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.19 · 47 matches

Bílovec away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 1.36 + Bílovec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bílovec attack 1.63 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
28%
level
22%
Bílovec scores more
49%

Bílovec at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bílovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Olympia Bruntál vs Bílovec

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál and Bílovec drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál in Bruntál.