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Slavoj Olympia Bruntál vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
CANC
14:00
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
4/25/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 17Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál42%
×Draw22%
Beskyd Frenštát36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.87
Beskyd Frenštát
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 60 away

creates per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.36
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.19
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or draw
64%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or Beskyd Frenštát
78%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
58%

Winning margin

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
23%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
85%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
56%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
29%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
82%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
51%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
54%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.19 · 47 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 1.36 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.87

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
42%
level
22%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
36%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slavoj Olympia Bruntál will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Slavoj Olympia Bruntál host Beskyd Frenštát

April 25, 2021: Slavoj Olympia Bruntál take on Beskyd Frenštát in 4. liga - Divizie F. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál host Beskyd Frenštát at Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.