Beskyd Frenštát 1–2 Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Beskyd Frenštát

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

5/28/2023

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 24Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát56%

×Draw21%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beskyd FrenštátExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Olympia Bruntál

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.34

Beskyd Frenštát

2.15

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

1.34

Beskyd Frenštát creates 60% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

1.59

creates per match

0.89

1.80

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát

1.59

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

0.89

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát

1.80

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw

76%

Beskyd Frenštát or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

79%

Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

44%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+

34%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals

88%

Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals

63%

Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals

36%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals

74%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals

39%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)

70%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.15

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more

56%

level

21%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more

24%

Beskyd Frenštát at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Beskyd Frenštát will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff