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Slavoj Mýto vs Spartak Soběslav — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
CANC
15:00
Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
5/1/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 22Slavoj Mýto - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Slavoj Mýto46%
×Draw22%
Spartak Soběslav31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Mýto
1.90
Spartak Soběslav
1.53

Slavoj Mýto creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 86 away

creates per match

Slavoj Mýto
2.11
Spartak Soběslav
1.73

allows per match

Slavoj Mýto
1.33
Spartak Soběslav
1.69

finishing

Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par
Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Mýto ↓

Spartak Soběslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Slavoj Mýto or draw
69%
Slavoj Mýto or Spartak Soběslav
78%
Draw or Spartak Soběslav
54%

Winning margin

Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
26%
Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
85%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
56%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
29%
Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
78%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
45%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
60%
Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Mýto at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Mýto attack 2.11 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.90

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Slavoj Mýto defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slavoj Mýto scores more
46%
level
22%
Spartak Soběslav scores more
31%

Slavoj Mýto at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slavoj Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Mýto vs Spartak Soběslav — Match Preview

Slavoj Mýto face Spartak Soběslav on May 1, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Slavoj Mýto host Spartak Soběslav at Slavoj Mýto - tráva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.