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Slavoj Mýto vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
FT
0 – 0
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
8/23/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 1Slavoj Mýto - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Slavoj Mýto57%
×Draw20%
Otava Katovice23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Mýto
2.21
Otava Katovice
1.33

Slavoj Mýto creates 66% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 56 away

creates per match

Slavoj Mýto
2.11
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Slavoj Mýto
1.33
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Mýto ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Slavoj Mýto or draw
77%
Slavoj Mýto or Otava Katovice
80%
Draw or Otava Katovice
43%

Winning margin

Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
35%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
89%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
65%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
38%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
74%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
38%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
72%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Mýto at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Mýto attack 2.11 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.21

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Slavoj Mýto defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Slavoj Mýto scores more
57%
level
20%
Otava Katovice scores more
23%

Slavoj Mýto at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Slavoj Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Mýto vs Otava Katovice

Slavoj Mýto and Otava Katovice drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Slavoj Mýto - tráva in Mýto.