Slavoj Mýto 5–1 Hořovicko: Result & Stats

Slavoj Mýto

FT

5 – 1

Hořovicko

9/19/2021

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 8Slavoj Mýto - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Slavoj Mýto54%

×Draw22%

Hořovicko24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavoj MýtoExpected goals in this matchHořovicko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.30

Slavoj Mýto

2.02

Hořovicko

1.30

Slavoj Mýto creates 55% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 86 away

2.11

creates per match

1.27

1.33

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Slavoj Mýto

2.11

Hořovicko

1.27

allows per match

Slavoj Mýto

1.33

Hořovicko

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par

Hořovicko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Mýto ↓

Hořovicko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Slavoj Mýto or draw

76%

Slavoj Mýto or Hořovicko

78%

Draw or Hořovicko

46%

Winning margin

Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+

32%

Hořovicko wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals

87%

Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals

60%

Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals

33%

Hořovicko 1+ goals

73%

Hořovicko 2+ goals

37%

Hořovicko 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)

69%

Hořovicko (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Mýto at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Hořovicko away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Mýto attack 2.11 + Hořovicko defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hořovicko attack 1.27 + Slavoj Mýto defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Slavoj Mýto scores more

54%

level

22%

Hořovicko scores more

24%

Slavoj Mýto at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Slavoj Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff