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Slavoj Český Krumlov vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavoj Český Krumlov
Slavoj Český Krumlov
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
9/16/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 7Stadion FK Slavoj Český Krumlov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Slavoj Český Krumlov50%
×Draw22%
Otava Katovice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.97
Otava Katovice
1.41

Slavoj Český Krumlov creates 40% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 56 away

creates per match

Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.65
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.47
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Slavoj Český Krumlov+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Český Krumlov ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slavoj Český Krumlov or draw
72%
Slavoj Český Krumlov or Otava Katovice
78%
Draw or Otava Katovice
50%

Winning margin

Slavoj Český Krumlov wins by 2+
29%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slavoj Český Krumlov 1+ goals
86%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 2+ goals
58%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 3+ goals
31%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
76%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
41%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Český Krumlov (draw refunded)
65%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Český Krumlov at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Český Krumlov attack 1.65 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.97

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Slavoj Český Krumlov defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slavoj Český Krumlov scores more
50%
level
22%
Otava Katovice scores more
28%

Slavoj Český Krumlov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slavoj Český Krumlov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Český Krumlov 4 – 2 Otava Katovice

Slavoj Český Krumlov beat Otava Katovice 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Slavoj Český Krumlov in Český Krumlov.