Slavija 1–1 Željezničar Banja Luka: Result & Stats

Slavija

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Željezničar Banja Luka

9/14/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 6Gradski Stadion SRC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Slavija60%

×Draw23%

Željezničar Banja Luka17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlavijaExpected goals in this matchŽeljezničar Banja Luka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.81

Slavija

1.77

Željezničar Banja Luka

0.81

Slavija creates 119% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 87 away

1.72

creates per match

0.82

0.80

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Slavija

1.72

Željezničar Banja Luka

0.82

allows per match

Slavija

0.80

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavija+0.00on par

Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavija ↓

Željezničar Banja Luka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Slavija or draw

83%

Slavija or Željezničar Banja Luka

77%

Draw or Željezničar Banja Luka

40%

Winning margin

Slavija wins by 2+

34%

Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Slavija 1+ goals

83%

Slavija 2+ goals

53%

Slavija 3+ goals

26%

Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals

56%

Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals

19%

Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Slavija (draw refunded)

78%

Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavija at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.80 · 102 matches

Željezničar Banja Luka away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavija attack 1.72 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 0.82 + Slavija defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Slavija scores more

60%

level

23%

Željezničar Banja Luka scores more

17%

Slavija at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slavija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff