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Slavija vs Sutjeska Foča — 1st League - RS 2019

Slavija
Slavija
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Sutjeska Foča
Sutjeska Foča
5/25/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 33Gradski Stadion SRC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Slavija61%
×Draw22%
Sutjeska Foča17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavija
1.88
Sutjeska Foča
0.86

Slavija creates 119% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 96 away

creates per match

Slavija
1.72
Sutjeska Foča
0.93

allows per match

Slavija
0.80
Sutjeska Foča
2.04

finishing

Slavija+0.00on par
Sutjeska Foča+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavija ↓

Sutjeska Foča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slavija or draw
83%
Slavija or Sutjeska Foča
78%
Draw or Sutjeska Foča
39%

Winning margin

Slavija wins by 2+
36%
Sutjeska Foča wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slavija 1+ goals
85%
Slavija 2+ goals
56%
Slavija 3+ goals
29%
Sutjeska Foča 1+ goals
58%
Sutjeska Foča 2+ goals
21%
Sutjeska Foča 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Slavija (draw refunded)
79%
Sutjeska Foča (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavija at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.80 · 102 matches

Sutjeska Foča away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.04 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavija attack 1.72 + Sutjeska Foča defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sutjeska Foča attack 0.93 + Slavija defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Slavija scores more
61%
level
22%
Sutjeska Foča scores more
17%

Slavija at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Slavija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavija vs Sutjeska Foča

Slavija beat Sutjeska Foča 4-1 in 1st League - RS on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion SRC in Istočno Sarajevo.