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Slavija vs Modriča — 1st League - RS 2019

Slavija
Slavija
FT
4 – 0
Modriča
Modriča
11/20/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 15Gradski Stadion SRC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Slavija67%
×Draw20%
Modriča13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavija
2.03
Modriča
0.75

Slavija creates 171% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 71 away

creates per match

Slavija
1.72
Modriča
0.70

allows per match

Slavija
0.80
Modriča
2.34

finishing

Slavija+0.00on par
Modriča+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavija ↓

Modriča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Slavija or draw
87%
Slavija or Modriča
80%
Draw or Modriča
33%

Winning margin

Slavija wins by 2+
42%
Modriča wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Slavija 1+ goals
87%
Slavija 2+ goals
60%
Slavija 3+ goals
33%
Modriča 1+ goals
53%
Modriča 2+ goals
17%
Modriča 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Slavija (draw refunded)
84%
Modriča (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavija at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.80 · 102 matches

Modriča away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavija attack 1.72 + Modriča defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.03

Modriča attack 0.70 + Slavija defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slavija scores more
67%
level
20%
Modriča scores more
13%

Slavija at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Slavija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Slavija 4–0 Modriča

Slavija beat Modriča 4-0 in 1st League - RS on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion SRC in Istočno Sarajevo.