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Modriča vs Slavija — 1st League - RS 2019

Modriča
Modriča
FT
0 – 0
Slavija
Slavija
8/17/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 3Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Modriča52%
×Draw25%
Slavija23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modriča
1.65
Slavija
1.01

Modriča creates 63% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 103 away

creates per match

Modriča
1.70
Slavija
0.90

allows per match

Modriča
1.11
Slavija
1.60

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par
Slavija+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Slavija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Modriča or draw
77%
Modriča or Slavija
75%
Draw or Slavija
48%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+
28%
Slavija wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals
81%
Modriča 2+ goals
49%
Modriča 3+ goals
23%
Slavija 1+ goals
64%
Slavija 2+ goals
27%
Slavija 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)
69%
Slavija (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Slavija away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Slavija defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Slavija attack 0.90 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Modriča scores more
52%
level
25%
Slavija scores more
23%

Modriča at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Modriča 0–0 Slavija

Modriča and Slavija drew 0-0 in 1st League - RS on August 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić in Modriča.