Slavija 1–1 Ljubić Prnjavor: Result & Stats

Slavija

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ljubić Prnjavor

11/2/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 14Gradski Stadion SRC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Slavija65%

×Draw21%

Ljubić Prnjavor14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlavijaExpected goals in this matchLjubić Prnjavor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.81

Slavija

2.00

Ljubić Prnjavor

0.81

Slavija creates 147% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 81 away

1.72

creates per match

0.81

0.80

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Slavija

1.72

Ljubić Prnjavor

0.81

allows per match

Slavija

0.80

Ljubić Prnjavor

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavija+0.00on par

Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavija ↓

Ljubić Prnjavor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Slavija or draw

86%

Slavija or Ljubić Prnjavor

79%

Draw or Ljubić Prnjavor

35%

Winning margin

Slavija wins by 2+

40%

Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Slavija 1+ goals

86%

Slavija 2+ goals

59%

Slavija 3+ goals

32%

Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals

56%

Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals

19%

Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Slavija (draw refunded)

82%

Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavija at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.80 · 102 matches

Ljubić Prnjavor away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavija attack 1.72 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 0.81 + Slavija defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Slavija scores more

65%

level

21%

Ljubić Prnjavor scores more

14%

Slavija at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Slavija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff