Slavija 3–1 Krupa na Vrbasu: Result & Stats

Slavija

FT

3 – 1

Krupa na Vrbasu

4/22/2023

1st League - RS · RS - 26Gradski Stadion SRC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Slavija34%

×Draw27%

Krupa na Vrbasu39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlavijaExpected goals in this matchKrupa na Vrbasu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.29

Slavija

1.18

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 39 away

1.72

creates per match

1.79

0.80

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Slavija

1.72

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.79

allows per match

Slavija

0.80

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavija+0.00on par

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavija ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Slavija or draw

61%

Slavija or Krupa na Vrbasu

73%

Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu

66%

Winning margin

Slavija wins by 2+

14%

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Slavija 1+ goals

69%

Slavija 2+ goals

33%

Slavija 3+ goals

12%

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

72%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

37%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Slavija (draw refunded)

46%

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavija at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.80 · 102 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavija attack 1.72 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.18

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.79 + Slavija defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slavija scores more

34%

level

27%

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

39%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff