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Slavija vs FK Jedinstvo Brcko — 1st League - RS 2019

Slavija
Slavija
FT
1 – 2
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
8/29/20201st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 4Gradski Stadion SRC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Slavija72%
×Draw17%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavija
2.41
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.83

Slavija creates 190% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 21 away

creates per match

Slavija
1.72
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.86

allows per match

Slavija
0.80
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
3.10

finishing

Slavija+0.00on par
FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavija ↓

FK Jedinstvo Brcko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Slavija or draw
89%
Slavija or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
83%
Draw or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
28%

Winning margin

Slavija wins by 2+
49%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Slavija 1+ goals
91%
Slavija 2+ goals
69%
Slavija 3+ goals
43%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
56%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
20%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Slavija (draw refunded)
87%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavija at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.80 · 102 matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavija attack 1.72 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.41

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 0.86 + Slavija defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Slavija scores more
72%
level
17%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
11%

Slavija at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Slavija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavija vs FK Jedinstvo Brcko

FK Jedinstvo Brcko beat Slavija 2-1 in 1st League - RS on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion SRC in Istočno Sarajevo.