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Slavija vs Famos Vojkovići — 1st League - RS 2019

Slavija
Slavija
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Famos Vojkovići
Famos Vojkovići
9/7/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 5Gradski Stadion SRC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Slavija62%
×Draw22%
Famos Vojkovići15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavija
1.83
Famos Vojkovići
0.77

Slavija creates 138% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 66 away

creates per match

Slavija
1.72
Famos Vojkovići
0.73

allows per match

Slavija
0.80
Famos Vojkovići
1.94

finishing

Slavija+0.00on par
Famos Vojkovići+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavija ↓

Famos Vojkovići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Slavija or draw
85%
Slavija or Famos Vojkovići
78%
Draw or Famos Vojkovići
38%

Winning margin

Slavija wins by 2+
37%
Famos Vojkovići wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Slavija 1+ goals
84%
Slavija 2+ goals
54%
Slavija 3+ goals
28%
Famos Vojkovići 1+ goals
54%
Famos Vojkovići 2+ goals
18%
Famos Vojkovići 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Slavija (draw refunded)
80%
Famos Vojkovići (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavija at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.80 · 102 matches

Famos Vojkovići away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.94 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavija attack 1.72 + Famos Vojkovići defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.83

Famos Vojkovići attack 0.73 + Slavija defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Slavija scores more
62%
level
22%
Famos Vojkovići scores more
15%

Slavija at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Slavija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Slavija 2–0 Famos Vojkovići

Slavija beat Famos Vojkovići 2-0 in 1st League - RS on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion SRC in Istočno Sarajevo.