Slavija 5–0 Budućnost Pilica: Result & Stats

Slavija

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Budućnost Pilica

3/5/2022

1st League - RS · RS - 16Gradski Stadion SRC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavija81%

×Draw13%

Budućnost Pilica6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlavijaExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Pilica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

0.60

Slavija

2.69

Budućnost Pilica

0.60

Slavija creates 348% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

1.72

creates per match

0.40

0.80

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Slavija

1.72

Budućnost Pilica

0.40

allows per match

Slavija

0.80

Budućnost Pilica

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavija+0.00on par

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavija ↓

Budućnost Pilica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Slavija or draw

94%

Slavija or Budućnost Pilica

87%

Draw or Budućnost Pilica

19%

Winning margin

Slavija wins by 2+

60%

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Slavija 1+ goals

93%

Slavija 2+ goals

74%

Slavija 3+ goals

49%

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals

45%

Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals

12%

Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Slavija (draw refunded)

93%

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavija at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.80 · 102 matches

Budućnost Pilica away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavija attack 1.72 + Budućnost Pilica defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.69

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.40 + Slavija defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Slavija scores more

81%

level

13%

Budućnost Pilica scores more

6%

Slavija at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Slavija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff