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Slavija Pleternica vs NAŠK Našice — League #217 2026

Slavija Pleternica
Slavija Pleternica
FT
3 – 2
NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
9/21/2024League #217League #217 · East - 5Stadion Stjepan Zdenko Šivo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Slavija Pleternica50%
×Draw22%
NAŠK Našice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavija Pleternica
1.96
NAŠK Našice
1.43

Slavija Pleternica creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 28 away

creates per match

Slavija Pleternica
1.67
NAŠK Našice
0.86

allows per match

Slavija Pleternica
2.00
NAŠK Našice
2.25

finishing

Slavija Pleternica+0.00on par
NAŠK Našice+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavija Pleternica ↓

NAŠK Našice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slavija Pleternica or draw
72%
Slavija Pleternica or NAŠK Našice
78%
Draw or NAŠK Našice
50%

Winning margin

Slavija Pleternica wins by 2+
28%
NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slavija Pleternica 1+ goals
86%
Slavija Pleternica 2+ goals
58%
Slavija Pleternica 3+ goals
31%
NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
76%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
42%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Slavija Pleternica (draw refunded)
64%
NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavija Pleternica at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

NAŠK Našice away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavija Pleternica attack 1.67 + NAŠK Našice defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

NAŠK Našice attack 0.86 + Slavija Pleternica defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slavija Pleternica scores more
50%
level
22%
NAŠK Našice scores more
28%

Slavija Pleternica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slavija Pleternica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #217: Slavija Pleternica 3–2 NAŠK Našice

Slavija Pleternica beat NAŠK Našice 3-2 in League #217 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Stjepan Zdenko Šivo in Pleternica.