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Slavičín vs Holešov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Slavičín
Slavičín
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Holešov
Holešov
8/17/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 3Stadion FC TVD Slavičín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Slavičín48%
×Draw23%
Holešov29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavičín
1.86
Holešov
1.39

Slavičín creates 34% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 69 away

creates per match

Slavičín
1.89
Holešov
1.49

allows per match

Slavičín
1.29
Holešov
1.84

finishing

Slavičín+0.00on par
Holešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavičín ↓

Holešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Slavičín or draw
71%
Slavičín or Holešov
77%
Draw or Holešov
52%

Winning margin

Slavičín wins by 2+
27%
Holešov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slavičín 1+ goals
84%
Slavičín 2+ goals
55%
Slavičín 3+ goals
28%
Holešov 1+ goals
75%
Holešov 2+ goals
40%
Holešov 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Slavičín (draw refunded)
63%
Holešov (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavičín at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Holešov away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavičín attack 1.89 + Holešov defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.86

Holešov attack 1.49 + Slavičín defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Slavičín scores more
48%
level
23%
Holešov scores more
29%

Slavičín at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Slavičín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavičín vs Holešov

Slavičín beat Holešov 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FC TVD Slavičín in Slavičín.