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Slavičín vs HFK Olomouc — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Slavičín
Slavičín
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
9/22/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 8Stadion FC TVD Slavičín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Slavičín59%
×Draw20%
HFK Olomouc21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavičín
2.20
HFK Olomouc
1.24

Slavičín creates 77% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 66 away

creates per match

Slavičín
1.94
HFK Olomouc
1.21

allows per match

Slavičín
1.27
HFK Olomouc
2.45

finishing

Slavičín+0.00on par
HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavičín ↓

HFK Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Slavičín or draw
79%
Slavičín or HFK Olomouc
80%
Draw or HFK Olomouc
41%

Winning margin

Slavičín wins by 2+
37%
HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Slavičín 1+ goals
89%
Slavičín 2+ goals
64%
Slavičín 3+ goals
37%
HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
71%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
35%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Slavičín (draw refunded)
74%
HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavičín at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.27 · 80 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavičín attack 1.94 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.20

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Slavičín defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Slavičín scores more
59%
level
20%
HFK Olomouc scores more
21%

Slavičín at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Slavičín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Slavičín 2–0 HFK Olomouc

Slavičín beat HFK Olomouc 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FC TVD Slavičín in Slavičín.