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Slavia Vejprnice vs TJ Přeštice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavia Vejprnice
Slavia Vejprnice
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
TJ Přeštice
TJ Přeštice
11/2/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 13Stadion Slavia Vejprnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavia Vejprnice32%
×Draw21%
TJ Přeštice46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Vejprnice
1.66
TJ Přeštice
2.02

TJ Přeštice creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

creates per match

Slavia Vejprnice
1.00
TJ Přeštice
1.38

allows per match

Slavia Vejprnice
2.67
TJ Přeštice
2.31

finishing

Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par
TJ Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Vejprnice ↓

TJ Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Slavia Vejprnice or draw
54%
Slavia Vejprnice or TJ Přeštice
79%
Draw or TJ Přeštice
68%

Winning margin

Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+
16%
TJ Přeštice wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals
81%
Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals
49%
Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals
23%
TJ Přeštice 1+ goals
87%
TJ Přeštice 2+ goals
60%
TJ Přeštice 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)
41%
TJ Přeštice (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Vejprnice at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

TJ Přeštice away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Vejprnice attack 1.00 + TJ Přeštice defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

TJ Přeštice attack 1.38 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slavia Vejprnice scores more
32%
level
21%
TJ Přeštice scores more
46%

TJ Přeštice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TJ Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Vejprnice vs TJ Přeštice

TJ Přeštice beat Slavia Vejprnice 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Slavia Vejprnice in Vejprnice.