Slavia Vejprnice 0–1 Spartak Soběslav

Slavia Vejprnice

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Soběslav

8/24/2024

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 3Stadion Slavia Vejprnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavia Vejprnice23%

×Draw20%

Spartak Soběslav57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia VejprniceExpected goals in this matchSpartak Soběslav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

2.20

Slavia Vejprnice

1.34

Spartak Soběslav

2.20

Spartak Soběslav creates 64% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

1.00

creates per match

1.73

2.67

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Slavia Vejprnice

1.00

Spartak Soběslav

1.73

allows per match

Slavia Vejprnice

2.67

Spartak Soběslav

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par

Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Vejprnice ↓

Spartak Soběslav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Slavia Vejprnice or draw

43%

Slavia Vejprnice or Spartak Soběslav

80%

Draw or Spartak Soběslav

77%

Winning margin

Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+

10%

Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals

74%

Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals

39%

Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals

15%

Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals

89%

Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals

64%

Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)

29%

Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Vejprnice at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Vejprnice attack 1.00 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Slavia Vejprnice scores more

23%

level

20%

Spartak Soběslav scores more

57%

Spartak Soběslav at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff