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Slavia Vejprnice vs Příbram II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavia Vejprnice
Slavia Vejprnice
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Příbram II
Příbram II
11/16/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 15Stadion Slavia Vejprnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavia Vejprnice29%
×Draw20%
Příbram II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Vejprnice
1.67
Příbram II
2.23

Příbram II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Slavia Vejprnice
1.00
Příbram II
1.80

allows per match

Slavia Vejprnice
2.67
Příbram II
2.33

finishing

Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par
Příbram II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Vejprnice ↓

Příbram II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Slavia Vejprnice or draw
50%
Slavia Vejprnice or Příbram II
80%
Draw or Příbram II
71%

Winning margin

Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+
14%
Příbram II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals
81%
Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals
50%
Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals
23%
Příbram II 1+ goals
89%
Příbram II 2+ goals
65%
Příbram II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)
37%
Příbram II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Vejprnice at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Příbram II away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Vejprnice attack 1.00 + Příbram II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Příbram II attack 1.80 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slavia Vejprnice scores more
29%
level
20%
Příbram II scores more
50%

Příbram II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Příbram II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavia Vejprnice 0 – 3 Příbram II

Příbram II beat Slavia Vejprnice 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Slavia Vejprnice in Vejprnice.