Scoreo

Slávia TU Košice vs Veľké Revištia3. liga - East 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Slávia TU Košice80%
×Draw13%
Veľké Revištia7%
Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slávia TU Košice
2.94
Veľké Revištia
0.80

Slávia TU Košice creates 268% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 8 away

creates per match

Slávia TU Košice
2.63
Veľké Revištia
0.63

allows per match

Slávia TU Košice
0.97
Veľké Revištia
3.25

finishing

Slávia TU Košice+0.00on par
Veľké Revištia+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slávia TU Košice

Veľké Revištia
0
1
2
3
4
0
002%
012%
021%
030%
040%
1
107%
116%
122%
131%
140%
2
2011%
218%
223%
231%
240%
3
3010%
318%
323%
331%
340%
4
408%
416%
422%
431%
440%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Slávia TU Košice or draw
93%
Slávia TU Košice or Veľké Revištia
87%
Draw or Veľké Revištia
20%

Winning margin

Slávia TU Košice wins by 2+
60%
Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Slávia TU Košice 1+ goals
95%
Slávia TU Košice 2+ goals
79%
Slávia TU Košice 3+ goals
55%
Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
55%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
19%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Slávia TU Košice (draw refunded)
92%
Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slávia TU Košice at homecreates 2.63, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

Veľké Revištia awaycreates 0.63, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slávia TU Košice attack 2.63 + Veľké Revištia defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.94

Veľké Revištia attack 0.63 + Slávia TU Košice defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Slávia TU Košice scores more
80%
level
13%
Veľké Revištia scores more
7%

Slávia TU Košice at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Slávia TU Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slávia TU Košice face Veľké Revištia (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Slávia TU Košice hosting Veľké Revištia. Match starts June 6, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.