Slávia TU Košice 2–0 Pokrok Krompachy

Slávia TU Košice

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pokrok Krompachy

3/20/2022

3. liga - East · East - 17Štadión TU Watsonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slávia TU Košice82%

×Draw11%

Pokrok Krompachy6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slávia TU KošiceExpected goals in this matchPokrok Krompachy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.14

0.79

Slávia TU Košice

3.14

Pokrok Krompachy

0.79

Slávia TU Košice creates 297% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 23 away

2.63

creates per match

0.61

0.97

allows per match

3.65

creates per match

Slávia TU Košice

2.63

Pokrok Krompachy

0.61

allows per match

Slávia TU Košice

0.97

Pokrok Krompachy

3.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slávia TU Košice+0.00on par

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slávia TU Košice ↓

Pokrok Krompachy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Slávia TU Košice or draw

94%

Slávia TU Košice or Pokrok Krompachy

89%

Draw or Pokrok Krompachy

18%

Winning margin

Slávia TU Košice wins by 2+

64%

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Slávia TU Košice 1+ goals

95%

Slávia TU Košice 2+ goals

81%

Slávia TU Košice 3+ goals

59%

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals

55%

Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals

19%

Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Slávia TU Košice (draw refunded)

93%

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slávia TU Košice at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

Pokrok Krompachy away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slávia TU Košice attack 2.63 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 3.14

Pokrok Krompachy attack 0.61 + Slávia TU Košice defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Slávia TU Košice scores more

82%

level

11%

Pokrok Krompachy scores more

6%

Slávia TU Košice at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Slávia TU Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff