Slávia TU Košice vs Družstevník Plavnica

Slávia TU Košice

CANC

15:00

Družstevník Plavnica

5/23/2021

3. liga - East · East - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Slávia TU Košice68%

×Draw18%

Družstevník Plavnica15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slávia TU KošiceExpected goals in this matchDružstevník Plavnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.07

Slávia TU Košice

2.48

Družstevník Plavnica

1.07

Slávia TU Košice creates 132% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 6 away

2.63

creates per match

1.17

0.97

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Slávia TU Košice

2.63

Družstevník Plavnica

1.17

allows per match

Slávia TU Košice

0.97

Družstevník Plavnica

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slávia TU Košice+0.00on par

Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slávia TU Košice ↓

Družstevník Plavnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Slávia TU Košice or draw

85%

Slávia TU Košice or Družstevník Plavnica

82%

Draw or Družstevník Plavnica

32%

Winning margin

Slávia TU Košice wins by 2+

46%

Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Slávia TU Košice 1+ goals

92%

Slávia TU Košice 2+ goals

70%

Slávia TU Košice 3+ goals

44%

Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals

66%

Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals

29%

Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Slávia TU Košice (draw refunded)

82%

Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slávia TU Košice at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

Družstevník Plavnica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slávia TU Košice attack 2.63 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.48

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.17 + Slávia TU Košice defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Slávia TU Košice scores more

68%

level

18%

Družstevník Plavnica scores more

15%

Slávia TU Košice at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Slávia TU Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff