Slavia Sofia 1–0 Zhenys: Result & Stats

Slavia Sofia

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zhenys

1/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3IC Hotels Football Center - Pitch A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Slavia Sofia72%

×Draw16%

Zhenys11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia SofiaExpected goals in this matchZhenys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

0.89

Slavia Sofia

2.51

Zhenys

0.89

Slavia Sofia creates 182% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

2.73

creates per match

0.71

1.07

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Slavia Sofia

2.73

Zhenys

0.71

allows per match

Slavia Sofia

1.07

Zhenys

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Zhenys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

Zhenys →

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw

89%

Slavia Sofia or Zhenys

84%

Draw or Zhenys

28%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

50%

Zhenys wins by 2+

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

92%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

71%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

45%

Zhenys 1+ goals

59%

Zhenys 2+ goals

22%

Zhenys 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

86%

Zhenys (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Zhenys away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 2.73 + Zhenys defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.51

Zhenys attack 0.71 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more

72%

level

16%

Zhenys scores more

11%

Slavia Sofia at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Slavia Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff