Slavia Sofia 4–0 Vereya Stara Zagora

Slavia Sofia

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Vereya Stara Zagora

12/14/2018

First League · Round 20Ovcha Kupel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Slavia Sofia74%

×Draw17%

Vereya Stara Zagora9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia SofiaExpected goals in this matchVereya Stara Zagora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.65

Slavia Sofia

2.25

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.65

Slavia Sofia creates 246% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 16 away

1.24

creates per match

0.19

1.10

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Slavia Sofia

1.24

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.19

allows per match

Slavia Sofia

1.10

Vereya Stara Zagora

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw

91%

Slavia Sofia or Vereya Stara Zagora

83%

Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora

26%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

49%

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

89%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

65%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

39%

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

48%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

14%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

89%

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 138 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.19, concedes 3.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 1.24 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.19 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more

74%

level

17%

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

9%

Slavia Sofia at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Slavia Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Slavia Sofia 4–0 Vereya Stara Zagora

Slavia Sofia beat Vereya Stara Zagora 4-0 in First League on December 14, 2018.

The match was played at Ovcha Kupel Stadium in Sofia.

Slavia Sofia vs Vereya Stara Zagora — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

First League: Slavia Sofia 4–0 Vereya Stara Zagora