Slavia Sofia 1–0 Tsarsko Selo: Result & Stats

Slavia Sofia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tsarsko Selo

10/4/2019

First League · Round 12Stadion Slavija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Slavia Sofia46%

×Draw28%

Tsarsko Selo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia SofiaExpected goals in this matchTsarsko Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.90

Slavia Sofia

1.29

Tsarsko Selo

0.90

Slavia Sofia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 48 away

1.24

creates per match

0.69

1.10

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Slavia Sofia

1.24

Tsarsko Selo

0.69

allows per match

Slavia Sofia

1.10

Tsarsko Selo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

Tsarsko Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw

74%

Slavia Sofia or Tsarsko Selo

72%

Draw or Tsarsko Selo

54%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

21%

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

72%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

37%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

14%

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

59%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

23%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

64%

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 138 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 1.24 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more

46%

level

28%

Tsarsko Selo scores more

26%

Slavia Sofia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slavia Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff