Slavia Sofia 3–1 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Slavia Sofia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Spartak Varna

V. Nikolov 49'

D. Aleksandrov 45+1'

K. Fabien 10'

A. Ahmedov 34'

8/9/2024

First League · Round 4Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Slavia Sofia49%

×Draw25%

Spartak Varna25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia SofiaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.03

Slavia Sofia

1.55

Spartak Varna

1.03

Slavia Sofia creates 50% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

1.14

creates per match

0.63

1.44

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Slavia Sofia

1.14

Spartak Varna

0.63

allows per match

Slavia Sofia

1.44

Spartak Varna

1.97

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.29scores more

Spartak Varna+0.02on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw

75%

Slavia Sofia or Spartak Varna

75%

Draw or Spartak Varna

51%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

25%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

79%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

46%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

20%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

64%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

28%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

66%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.44 · 14 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.97 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 1.14 + Spartak Varna defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.55

Spartak Varna attack 0.63 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more

49%

level

25%

Spartak Varna scores more

25%

Slavia Sofia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slavia Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Aleksandrov

Slavia Sofia · M

8.3

Match Events

10'

34'

45+1'

49'

54'

K. Stoyanov← K. Fabien

56'

Berna← Y. Baurenski

56'

F. Rivollier← A. Vutov

60'

Chung Nguyen Do

65'

R. Dimitrov← A. Tsvetkov

66'

V. Mitev← P. Konaté

70'

V. Kerchev← Q. Seedorf

70'

E. Martinov← C. Nguyen-Do

71'

74'

79'

81'

81'

85'

86'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaSpartak

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots8

2.18Expected Goals (xG)2.16

6Corners3

17Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots8

7On Target2

4Off Target2

4Blocked3

7Inside Box7

8Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

403Total Passes360

334Accurate Passes292

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2