Slavia Sofia 2–1 Montana: Result & Stats

Slavia Sofia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Montana

R. Raychev 90'

Y. Guermouche 87'

P. Ejike 68'

11/9/2025

First League · Round 15Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Slavia Sofia39%

×Draw27%

Montana34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia SofiaExpected goals in this matchMontana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.20

Slavia Sofia

1.31

Montana

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

1.20

creates per match

0.91

1.48

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Slavia Sofia

1.20

Montana

0.91

allows per match

Slavia Sofia

1.48

Montana

1.42

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.62scores less than expected

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.27scores more

Montana-0.62scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

Montana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw

66%

Slavia Sofia or Montana

73%

Draw or Montana

61%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

18%

Montana wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

73%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

38%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

14%

Montana 1+ goals

70%

Montana 2+ goals

34%

Montana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

54%

Montana (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 15 matches

Montana away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.42 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 1.20 + Montana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Montana attack 0.91 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more

39%

level

27%

Montana scores more

34%

Slavia Sofia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slavia Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

73

I. Minchev

Slavia Sofia · M

8.5

Match Events

23'

I. Solet← I. Stefanov

31'

Vasil Simeonov

39'

Philip Ejike

66'

Boris Dimitrov

67'

Vitinho← C. Acheampong

68'

P. Ejike↳ Vitinho

74'

M. Miletic← M. Dosso

74'

R. Raychev← K. Balov

79'

Vitinho

80'

I. Iliadis← B. Dimitrov

80'

J. Berhane← I. Kokonov

85'

V. Medved← Diego

85'

M. Mihaylov← D. Malembana

87'

Y. Guermouche↳ V. Medved

90+6'

Martin Mihaylov

90'

R. Raychev↳ I. Minchev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaMontana

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots11

2.01Expected Goals (xG)2.09

10Corners2

10Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots11

6On Target1

5Off Target6

5Blocked3

7Inside Box7

9Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

488Total Passes319

399Accurate Passes244

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1

First League: Slavia Sofia 2–1 Montana

Slavia Sofia beat Montana 2-1 in First League on November 9, 2025.

Goals: P. Ejike (68'), Y. Guermouche (87'), R. Raychev (90').

Slavia Sofia controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov in Sofia.

Slavia Sofia vs Montana — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

First League: Slavia Sofia 2–1 Montana