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Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — First League 2026

Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3/16/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Slavia Sofia40%
×Draw28%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia
1.27
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.13

Slavia Sofia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 136 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia
1.24
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.15

allows per match

Slavia Sofia
1.10
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.31

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw
67%
Slavia Sofia or Lokomotiv Plovdiv
72%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv
60%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+
18%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals
72%
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals
36%
Slavia Sofia 3+ goals
14%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals
68%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
31%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)
55%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 138 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 1.24 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.15 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more
40%
level
28%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more
33%

Slavia Sofia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slavia Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Lokomotiv Plovdiv beat Slavia Sofia 2-1 in First League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov in Sofia.