Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Slavia Sofia: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Slavia Sofia

4/19/2025

First League · Round 30Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv45%

×Draw28%

Slavia Sofia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv PlovdivExpected goals in this matchSlavia Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.97

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.34

Slavia Sofia

0.97

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 38% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 138 away

1.34

creates per match

1.00

0.94

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.34

Slavia Sofia

1.00

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.94

Slavia Sofia

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Slavia Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw

73%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Slavia Sofia

72%

Draw or Slavia Sofia

55%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

21%

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

74%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

39%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

15%

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

62%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

25%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

63%

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 135 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34

Slavia Sofia attack 1.00 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

45%

level

28%

Slavia Sofia scores more

27%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff