Slavia Sofia 0–1 FK Tobol Kostanay: Result & Stats

Slavia Sofia

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FK Tobol Kostanay

1/25/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slavia Sofia67%

×Draw20%

FK Tobol Kostanay13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia SofiaExpected goals in this matchFK Tobol Kostanay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.75

Slavia Sofia

2.01

FK Tobol Kostanay

0.75

Slavia Sofia creates 168% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

2.78

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Slavia Sofia

2.78

FK Tobol Kostanay

0.50

allows per match

Slavia Sofia

1.00

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw

87%

Slavia Sofia or FK Tobol Kostanay

80%

Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay

33%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

42%

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

87%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

59%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

32%

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

53%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

17%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

84%

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 2.78, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 2.78 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.01

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 0.50 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more

67%

level

20%

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

13%

Slavia Sofia at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Slavia Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Slavia

Manager: Ratko Dostanic

Manager: Nurbol Zhumaskaliyev