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Slavia Sofia vs CSKA Sofia — First League 2018

Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
2/8/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Slavia Sofia31%
×Draw29%
CSKA Sofia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia
1.03
CSKA Sofia
1.21

CSKA Sofia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 133 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia
1.24
CSKA Sofia
1.32

allows per match

Slavia Sofia
1.10
CSKA Sofia
0.83

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

CSKA Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw
60%
Slavia Sofia or CSKA Sofia
71%
Draw or CSKA Sofia
69%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+
12%
CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals
64%
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals
28%
Slavia Sofia 3+ goals
9%
CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
70%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
34%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)
44%
CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 138 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 1.24 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.03

CSKA Sofia attack 1.32 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more
31%
level
29%
CSKA Sofia scores more
40%

CSKA Sofia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Slavia Sofia 1–0 CSKA Sofia

Slavia Sofia beat CSKA Sofia 1-0 in First League on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov in Sofia.