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Slavia Sofia vs Akhmat — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia
CANC
13:00
Akhmat
Akhmat
1/22/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Arcadia Futbol Kompleksi - Field 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Slavia Sofia55%
×Draw22%
Akhmat23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia
1.93
Akhmat
1.16

Slavia Sofia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia
2.73
Akhmat
1.25

allows per match

Slavia Sofia
1.07
Akhmat
1.13

finishing

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia or draw
77%
Slavia Sofia or Akhmat
78%
Draw or Akhmat
45%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+
32%
Akhmat wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals
85%
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals
57%
Slavia Sofia 3+ goals
30%
Akhmat 1+ goals
69%
Akhmat 2+ goals
32%
Akhmat 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)
71%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia attack 2.73 + Akhmat defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.93

Akhmat attack 1.25 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Slavia Sofia scores more
55%
level
22%
Akhmat scores more
23%

Slavia Sofia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Slavia Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Slavia Sofia host Akhmat

January 22, 2025: Slavia Sofia take on Akhmat in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Slavia Sofia host Akhmat at Arcadia Futbol Kompleksi - Field 2.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.