Slavia Sofia II 2–2 Rilski Sportist: Result & Stats

Slavia Sofia II

FT

2 – 2

Rilski Sportist

6/1/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 37Slavija pomoshten teren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Slavia Sofia II51%

×Draw23%

Rilski Sportist26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchRilski Sportist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.25

Slavia Sofia II

1.83

Rilski Sportist

1.25

Slavia Sofia II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 129 away

1.94

creates per match

1.07

1.43

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Slavia Sofia II

1.94

Rilski Sportist

1.07

allows per match

Slavia Sofia II

1.43

Rilski Sportist

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia II ↓

Rilski Sportist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia II or draw

74%

Slavia Sofia II or Rilski Sportist

77%

Draw or Rilski Sportist

49%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+

28%

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals

84%

Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals

54%

Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals

28%

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

71%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

36%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)

66%

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.43 · 69 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.94 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.83

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slavia Sofia II scores more

51%

level

23%

Rilski Sportist scores more

26%

Slavia Sofia II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slavia Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff