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Slavia Sofia II vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
FT
1 – 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
9/8/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 8Slavija pomoshten teren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Slavia Sofia II60%
×Draw21%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia II
1.99
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.02

Slavia Sofia II creates 95% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 37 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.94
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.62

allows per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.43
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
2.05

finishing

Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia II ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia II or draw
81%
Slavia Sofia II or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
79%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
40%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
36%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
86%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
59%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
32%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
64%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
27%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
76%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.43 · 69 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.94 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.99

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Slavia Sofia II scores more
60%
level
21%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
19%

Slavia Sofia II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slavia Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Sofia II vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Slavia Sofia II beat Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Slavija pomoshten teren in Sofia.