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Slavia Sofia II vs Levski Rakovski — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
FT
4 – 1
Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
9/9/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 6Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Slavia Sofia II58%
×Draw21%
Levski Rakovski21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia II
2.06
Levski Rakovski
1.16

Slavia Sofia II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 16 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.94
Levski Rakovski
0.88

allows per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.43
Levski Rakovski
2.19

finishing

Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par
Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia II ↓

Levski Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia II or draw
79%
Slavia Sofia II or Levski Rakovski
79%
Draw or Levski Rakovski
42%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
35%
Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
87%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
61%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
34%
Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
69%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
32%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
73%
Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.43 · 69 matches

Levski Rakovski away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.94 + Levski Rakovski defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.06

Levski Rakovski attack 0.88 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Slavia Sofia II scores more
58%
level
21%
Levski Rakovski scores more
21%

Slavia Sofia II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Slavia Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Sofia II vs Levski Rakovski

Slavia Sofia II beat Levski Rakovski 4-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov in Sofia.