Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slavia Sofia II vs FK Minyor Pernik — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
FT
1 – 3
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
11/8/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 13Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Slavia Sofia II37%
×Draw25%
FK Minyor Pernik38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia II
1.42
FK Minyor Pernik
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 45 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.94
FK Minyor Pernik
1.49

allows per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.43
FK Minyor Pernik
0.89

finishing

Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia II ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia II or draw
62%
Slavia Sofia II or FK Minyor Pernik
75%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
63%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
17%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
76%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
41%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
17%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
77%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
43%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
49%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.43 · 69 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.94 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.42

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slavia Sofia II scores more
37%
level
25%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
38%

FK Minyor Pernik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Slavia Sofia II 1–3 FK Minyor Pernik

FK Minyor Pernik beat Slavia Sofia II 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov in Sofia.