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Slavia Sofia II vs CSKA 1948 Sofia III — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
FT
1 – 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
2/27/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 20Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Slavia Sofia II50%
×Draw23%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Sofia II
1.86
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.32

Slavia Sofia II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 52 away

creates per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.94
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.21

allows per match

Slavia Sofia II
1.43
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.79

finishing

Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Sofia II ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Slavia Sofia II or draw
73%
Slavia Sofia II or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
77%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
50%

Winning margin

Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
84%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
55%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
73%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
38%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
65%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Sofia II at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.43 · 69 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.94 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.86

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slavia Sofia II scores more
50%
level
23%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
27%

Slavia Sofia II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slavia Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Slavia Sofia II 1–0 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Slavia Sofia II beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov in Sofia.