Slavia Praha W 3–3 Sparta Praha W: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha W

FT

3 – 3

Sparta Praha W

3/16/2024

1. Liga Women · Round 12Stadion SK Horní Měcholupy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Slavia Praha W52%

×Draw18%

Sparta Praha W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia Praha WExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

2.15

Slavia Praha W

2.81

Sparta Praha W

2.15

Slavia Praha W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

4.75

creates per match

3.82

0.48

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Slavia Praha W

4.75

Sparta Praha W

3.82

allows per match

Slavia Praha W

0.48

Sparta Praha W

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha W+0.00on par

Sparta Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha W ↓

Sparta Praha W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Slavia Praha W or draw

70%

Slavia Praha W or Sparta Praha W

82%

Draw or Sparta Praha W

48%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha W wins by 2+

33%

Sparta Praha W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Slavia Praha W 1+ goals

94%

Slavia Praha W 2+ goals

76%

Slavia Praha W 3+ goals

52%

Sparta Praha W 1+ goals

88%

Sparta Praha W 2+ goals

63%

Sparta Praha W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)

63%

Sparta Praha W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha W at home — creates 4.75, concedes 0.48 · 60 matches

Sparta Praha W away — creates 3.82, concedes 0.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha W attack 4.75 + Sparta Praha W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 2.81

Sparta Praha W attack 3.82 + Slavia Praha W defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slavia Praha W scores more

52%

level

18%

Sparta Praha W scores more

30%

Slavia Praha W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slavia Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff