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Slavia Praha W vs Dukla Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Slavia Praha W
Slavia Praha W
FT
7 – 0
Dukla Praha W
Dukla Praha W
9/12/20201. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 4Stadion SK Horní Měcholupy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slavia Praha W94%
×Draw5%
Dukla Praha W2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha W
4.24
Dukla Praha W
0.51

Slavia Praha W creates 731% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha W
4.75
Dukla Praha W
0.53

allows per match

Slavia Praha W
0.48
Dukla Praha W
3.73

finishing

Slavia Praha W+0.00on par
Dukla Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha W ↓

Dukla Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–014%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (14%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Slavia Praha W or draw
98%
Slavia Praha W or Dukla Praha W
95%
Draw or Dukla Praha W
6%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha W wins by 2+
83%
Dukla Praha W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Slavia Praha W 1+ goals
98%
Slavia Praha W 2+ goals
91%
Slavia Praha W 3+ goals
76%
Dukla Praha W 1+ goals
40%
Dukla Praha W 2+ goals
9%
Dukla Praha W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)
98%
Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha W at home — creates 4.75, concedes 0.48 · 60 matches

Dukla Praha W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha W attack 4.75 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 4.24

Dukla Praha W attack 0.53 + Slavia Praha W defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Slavia Praha W scores more
94%
level
5%
Dukla Praha W scores more
2%

Slavia Praha W at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Slavia Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Praha W vs Dukla Praha W

Slavia Praha W beat Dukla Praha W 7-0 in 1. Liga Women on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion SK Horní Měcholupy in Praha.