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Dukla Praha W vs Slavia Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Dukla Praha W
Dukla Praha W
FT
0 – 9
Slavia Praha W
Slavia Praha W
9/11/20211. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 5Stadion Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dukla Praha W7%
×Draw11%
Slavia Praha W82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha W
1.03
Slavia Praha W
3.58

Slavia Praha W creates 248% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha W
1.40
Slavia Praha W
4.05

allows per match

Dukla Praha W
3.10
Slavia Praha W
0.67

finishing

Dukla Praha W+0.00on par
Slavia Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha W ↓

Slavia Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Dukla Praha W or draw
18%
Dukla Praha W or Slavia Praha W
89%
Draw or Slavia Praha W
93%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha W wins by 2+
2%
Slavia Praha W wins by 2+
65%

Team goals

Dukla Praha W 1+ goals
64%
Dukla Praha W 2+ goals
28%
Dukla Praha W 3+ goals
9%
Slavia Praha W 1+ goals
97%
Slavia Praha W 2+ goals
86%
Slavia Praha W 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)
8%
Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

Slavia Praha W away — creates 4.05, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha W attack 1.40 + Slavia Praha W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Slavia Praha W attack 4.05 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 3.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Dukla Praha W scores more
7%
level
11%
Slavia Praha W scores more
82%

Slavia Praha W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Slavia Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukla Praha W vs Slavia Praha W

Slavia Praha W beat Dukla Praha W 9-0 in 1. Liga Women on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Juliska in Praha.