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Slavia Praha vs SKN ST. Polten — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
5 – 0
SKN ST. Polten
SKN ST. Polten
8/5/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportanlage Laa an der Thaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Slavia Praha47%
×Draw21%
SKN ST. Polten32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
2.13
SKN ST. Polten
1.73

Slavia Praha creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.27
SKN ST. Polten
2.33

allows per match

Slavia Praha
1.13
SKN ST. Polten
2.00

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par
SKN ST. Polten+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

SKN ST. Polten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
68%
Slavia Praha or SKN ST. Polten
79%
Draw or SKN ST. Polten
53%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
27%
SKN ST. Polten wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
88%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
63%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
35%
SKN ST. Polten 1+ goals
82%
SKN ST. Polten 2+ goals
52%
SKN ST. Polten 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
60%
SKN ST. Polten (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

SKN ST. Polten away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.27 + SKN ST. Polten defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

SKN ST. Polten attack 2.33 + Slavia Praha defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
47%
level
21%
SKN ST. Polten scores more
32%

Slavia Praha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Slavia Praha 5–0 SKN ST. Polten

Slavia Praha beat SKN ST. Polten 5-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 5, 2020.

The match was played at Sportanlage Laa an der Thaya in Laa an der Thaya.