Slavia Praha 1–1 Sivasspor: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sivasspor

D. Goutas 65' (OG)

M. Gradel 28' (pen)

11/3/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 6Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Slavia Praha55%

×Draw23%

Sivasspor22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchSivasspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.09

Slavia Praha

1.87

Sivasspor

1.09

Slavia Praha creates 72% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

2.45

creates per match

1.00

1.18

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.45

Sivasspor

1.00

allows per match

Slavia Praha

1.18

Sivasspor

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Sivasspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

78%

Slavia Praha or Sivasspor

77%

Draw or Sivasspor

45%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

32%

Sivasspor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

85%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

56%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

29%

Sivasspor 1+ goals

66%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

30%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

72%

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Sivasspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.45 + Sivasspor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.87

Sivasspor attack 1.00 + Slavia Praha defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

55%

level

23%

Sivasspor scores more

22%

Slavia Praha at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

A. Vural

Sivasspor · G

7.9

Match Events

27'

David Jurásek

28'

M. GradelPenalty

35'

Max Gradel

46'

Eduardo Santos← A. Ousou

46'

D. Douděra← L. Masopust

46'

S. Tecl← Y. Sor

58'

M. Jurásek← C. Tiéhi

65'

D. GoutasOwn goal

69'

K. Keita← K. Angielski

69'

M. Yatabaré← C. Charisis

76'

D. Sabi'A← F. Ulvestad

76'

A. Musa← M. Gradel

90+1'

Ali Şaşal Vural

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaSivasspor

Overview

71%Possession29%

22Total Shots4

9Corners0

8Fouls8

Shots

22Total Shots4

6On Target1

12Off Target1

4Blocked2

15Inside Box2

7Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

548Total Passes240

439Accurate Passes132

80%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2