Slavia Praha 2–2 Sevilla: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchSevilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.23

Slavia Praha

1.15

Sevilla

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

1.59

0.86

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Slavia Praha

1.29

Sevilla

1.59

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.86

Sevilla

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Sevilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Sevilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

62%

Slavia Praha or Sevilla

72%

Draw or Sevilla

66%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

14%

Sevilla wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

68%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

32%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

11%

Sevilla 1+ goals

71%

Sevilla 2+ goals

35%

Sevilla 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

47%

Sevilla (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Sevilla away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 1.29 + Sevilla defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sevilla attack 1.59 + Slavia Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

34%

level

28%

Sevilla scores more

38%

Sevilla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sevilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

T. Souček

Slavia Praha · M

8.0

Match Events

14'

M. Ngadeu-Ngadjui↳ M. Škoda

43'

Ondřej Kolář

44'

W. Ben YedderPenalty

46'

T. SoučekPenalty

54'

Munir↳ Roque Mesa

67'

Alex Král

74'

M. Gonalons← Roque Mesa

77'

P. Olayinka← M. Škoda

80'

André Silva← Pablo Sarabia

88'

Peter Oladeji Olayinka

90+2'

J. Zmrhal← L. Masopust

90'

F. Vázquez← Munir

93'

M. van Buren← M. Stoch

98'

Franco Vázquez

98'

F. Vázquez↳ Q. Promes

102'

M. van Buren↳ T. Souček

104'

M. Rog← W. Ben Yedder

105'

M. Frydrych← A. Král

111'

Tomáš Souček

119'

I. Traore↳ P. Olayinka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaSevilla

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots14

5Corners8

27Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots14

6On Target5

4Off Target5

3Blocked4

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box7

Passing

42%Possession58%

426Total Passes579

274Accurate Passes415

64%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

27Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Sevilla

Slavia Praha and Sevilla drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa League on March 14, 2019.

Goals: M. Ngadeu-Ngadjui (14'), W. Ben Yedder (44' pen), T. Souček (46' pen), Munir (54'), F. Vázquez (98'), M. van Buren (102'), I. Traore (119').

Sevilla controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Eden Arena in Prague.

Slavia Praha vs Sevilla — UEFA Europa League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Sevilla