Slavia Praha 2–0 Panathinaikos: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Panathinaikos

M. Usor 56'

I. Schranz 45+2'

8/4/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundFortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Slavia Praha60%

×Draw21%

Panathinaikos19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchPanathinaikos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.09

Slavia Praha

2.08

Panathinaikos

1.09

Slavia Praha creates 91% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

2.45

creates per match

1.00

1.18

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Slavia Praha

2.45

Panathinaikos

1.00

allows per match

Slavia Praha

1.18

Panathinaikos

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Panathinaikos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Panathinaikos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

81%

Slavia Praha or Panathinaikos

79%

Draw or Panathinaikos

40%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

37%

Panathinaikos wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

87%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

61%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

34%

Panathinaikos 1+ goals

66%

Panathinaikos 2+ goals

30%

Panathinaikos 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

76%

Panathinaikos (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Panathinaikos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.45 + Panathinaikos defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.08

Panathinaikos attack 1.00 + Slavia Praha defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

60%

level

21%

Panathinaikos scores more

19%

Slavia Praha at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

33'

40'

40'

40'

45+3'

45+2'

46'

46'

46'

G. Vagiannidis← Aitor Cantalapiedra

46'

A. Šporar← F. Ioannidis

51'

52'

56'

57'

72'

L. Masopust← I. Schranz

72'

A. Kampetsis← D. Kourbelis

88'

L. Provod← I. Traoré

88'

A. Poungouras← Z. Šarlija

Statistics

SlaviaPanathinaikos

Overview

4Corners2

Discipline

1Yellow Cards4