Slavia Praha 0–0 Leicester: Result & Stats

Slavia Praha

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

2/18/2021

UEFA Europa League · Round of 32Sinobo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Slavia Praha44%

×Draw25%

Leicester31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia PrahaExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.22

Slavia Praha

1.50

Leicester

1.22

Slavia Praha creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

1.57

0.86

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Slavia Praha

1.29

Leicester

1.57

allows per match

Slavia Praha

0.86

Leicester

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw

69%

Slavia Praha or Leicester

75%

Draw or Leicester

56%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

21%

Leicester wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

78%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

44%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

19%

Leicester 1+ goals

70%

Leicester 2+ goals

34%

Leicester 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

59%

Leicester (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 1.29 + Leicester defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Leicester attack 1.57 + Slavia Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slavia Praha scores more

44%

level

25%

Leicester scores more

31%

Slavia Praha at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Ç. Söyüncü

Leicester · D

7.9

Match Events

27'

30'

46'

64'

64'

C. Ünder← M. Albrighton

64'

K. Iheanacho← J. Vardy

73'

I. Traoré← N. Stanciu

73'

L. Masopust← J. Kuchta

76'

H. Choudhury← J. Maddison

80'

Youri Tielemans

90+1'

O. Lingr← L. Provod

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlaviaLeicester

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots8

8Corners3

14Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots8

3On Target1

8Off Target5

3Blocked2

5Inside Box4

9Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

331Total Passes384

224Accurate Passes285

68%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1