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Slavia Praha vs Fenerbahçe — UEFA Europa League 2018

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
T. Chorý 7'
Y. En-Nesyri 85'
E. Džeko 35'
11/28/2024UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 5Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Slavia Praha38%
×Draw27%
Fenerbahçe35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
1.29
Fenerbahçe
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
1.29
Fenerbahçe
1.60

allows per match

Slavia Praha
0.86
Fenerbahçe
1.30

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par
Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
65%
Slavia Praha or Fenerbahçe
73%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
62%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
17%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
72%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
37%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
14%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
71%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
35%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
52%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 1.29 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fenerbahçe attack 1.60 + Slavia Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
38%
level
27%
Fenerbahçe scores more
35%

Slavia Praha at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
L. ProvodSlavia PrahaSlavia Praha · F
8.0

Match Events

7'
T. Chorý↳ L. Provod
17'
Christos Zafeiris
33'
Allan Saint-Maximin
35'
E. Džeko↳ S. Szymański
41'
Fred
41'
Edin Džeko
45'
Lukáš Provod
45'
Samet Akaydın
48'
El Hadji Malick Diouf
53'
Tomáš Chorý
55'
M. Jurásek← S. Michez
66'
Dušan Tadić
72'
M. Chytil← T. Chorý
72'
I. Schranz← L. Provod
78'
Y. En-Nesyri← E. Džeko
78'
İ. Kahveci← A. Saint-Maximin
82'
İsmail Yüksek
85'
Y. En-Nesyri↳ D. Tadić
87'
D. Pech← C. Zafeiris
87'
D. Fila← J. Bořil
90+4'
C. Tosun← D. Tadić
90+1'
Y. Akçiçek← S. Szymański

Possession

53%Slavia

Shots

23Slavia

Pass accuracy

52%Slavia

Statistics

SlaviaFenerbahçe
Overview
53%Possession47%
23Total Shots5
2.14Expected Goals (xG)0.73
4Corners2
16Fouls18
Shots
23Total Shots5
6On Target3
10Off Target1
7Blocked1
14Inside Box3
9Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
372Total Passes343
290Accurate Passes249
78%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
0.12Goals Prevented0.12
Discipline
16Fouls18
4Yellow Cards6
2Offsides1

UEFA Europa League: Slavia Praha 1–2 Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe beat Slavia Praha 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on November 28, 2024.

Goals: T. Chorý (7'), E. Džeko (35'), Y. En-Nesyri (85').

Slavia Praha controlled possession (53%) and registered 23 shots to 5.

The match was played at Fortuna Arena in Praha.