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Slavia Praha vs Fehérvár FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
FT
3 – 1
Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
8/8/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Frauenkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Slavia Praha52%
×Draw23%
Fehérvár FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Praha
1.80
Fehérvár FC
1.17

Slavia Praha creates 54% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Slavia Praha
2.36
Fehérvár FC
1.25

allows per match

Slavia Praha
1.09
Fehérvár FC
1.25

finishing

Slavia Praha+0.00on par
Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Praha ↓

Fehérvár FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Slavia Praha or draw
75%
Slavia Praha or Fehérvár FC
77%
Draw or Fehérvár FC
48%

Winning margin

Slavia Praha wins by 2+
29%
Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slavia Praha 1+ goals
83%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
54%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
27%
Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
69%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
33%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
68%
Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Praha at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Praha attack 2.36 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.80

Fehérvár FC attack 1.25 + Slavia Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slavia Praha scores more
52%
level
23%
Fehérvár FC scores more
25%

Slavia Praha at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Praha vs Fehérvár FC

Slavia Praha beat Fehérvár FC 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Frauenkirchen in Frauenkirchen.